Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 12.544756 14.355681 16.305586 18.557493 21.082597 23.822736 27.017282
2025-06-08 9.684938 12.097548 14.897333 18.371425 22.550270 27.397760 33.428309
2025-06-15 8.346865 11.027851 14.290645 18.525478 23.845044 30.271652 38.585292
2025-06-22 7.477356 10.384353 14.074028 19.055001 25.551052 33.677154 44.544300
2025-06-29 6.537225 9.497196 13.398597 18.853033 26.205975 35.688587 48.740884
2025-07-06 5.527786 8.389883 12.302289 17.958604 25.827253 36.270660 51.038946
2025-07-13 5.120671 8.068219 12.224289 18.405385 27.233666 39.234254 56.588105
2025-07-20 4.741419 7.740387 12.094496 18.744272 28.477955 42.005481 61.974280
2025-07-27 4.305572 7.279058 11.721956 18.685281 29.123361 43.942760 66.254876
2025-08-03 3.884631 6.796151 11.269943 18.459706 29.486949 45.466028 69.981255
2025-08-10 3.569457 6.449382 10.992305 18.465810 30.174216 47.463090 74.450168
2025-08-17 3.331558 6.205422 10.851942 18.664612 31.148277 49.906021 79.655786
2025-08-24 3.062303 5.889327 10.579714 18.647614 31.805473 51.935001 84.387031
2025-08-31 2.789468 5.540843 10.225891 18.470127 32.192027 53.561726 88.573732
2025-09-07 2.604411 5.329746 10.082514 18.621595 33.099563 56.013018 94.104511
2025-09-14 2.498617 5.254095 10.164715 19.154759 34.653133 59.538363 101.448902
2025-09-21 2.288352 4.959773 9.836434 18.951432 34.955233 61.061443 105.656067
2025-09-28 2.000303 4.484766 9.143265 18.052971 34.014987 60.508867 106.473057
2025-10-05 1.921054 4.419313 9.199584 18.501792 35.420742 63.869093 113.796842
2025-10-12 1.833415 4.327981 9.198908 18.842278 36.646588 66.969404 120.795560
2025-10-19 1.704683 4.137576 8.992553 18.783005 37.149550 68.857652 125.823961
2025-10-26 1.568245 3.916822 8.709135 18.556380 37.331080 70.192189 129.950551
2025-11-02 1.467885 3.765669 8.552823 18.562512 37.934985 72.274500 135.421616